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Picture: November 28, 2015. The Cavaliers defeated the Brooklyn Nets,
90-88,
on LeBron James's running hook shot with 1 second left.
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NBA rotations are typically built as follows:
- Star players who are core players
- Role players who are core players
- Role players who are situational players
- Bench players who are secondary backups
Back in March, I looked at the existing Cavs rotation and the projected Cavs playoff rotation. Since then, the Cavs have signed Dahntay Jones and have smoothed out the playoff rotation. As expected, Channing Frye has overtaken Timofey Mozgov as the third main big man in the rotation.
The current Cavs' rotation is:
- LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love
- J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert, Channing Frye, Richard Jefferson, Matthew Dellavedova
- Timofey Mozgov, Mo Williams, Dahntay Jones
- James Jones, Jordan McRae, Sasha Kaun
Coach Lue has established a core group of nine players that has played 3,202 minutes out of a possible 3,360 minutes. Should anything happen with foul trouble or injuries, Mozgov, Mo Williams, and Dahntay Jones are next in line to play. James Jones would be the next shooter behind Williams, although Jordan McRae is a wild card against a Golden State lineup stacked with swingmen. Sasha Kaun is not expected to dress for the Finals.
Cleveland has won on the scoring of James, Irving, and Love as others have stepped up from game to game. Based on matchups and skill sets, J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson, Channing Frye, and Richard Jefferson are likely to step up in the Finals as secondary scorers while Matthew Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert will focus more on defense and ball movement.
Meanwhile, the current Warriors' rotation is:
- Draymond Green, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson
- Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut, Shaun Livingston
- Marreese Speights, Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa, Ian Clark, Anderson Varejao, Brandon Rush
- James Michael McAdoo, Kevon Looney
Although Stephen Curry is the reigning two-time MVP and Klay Thompson is the other half of the feared "Splash Brothers" backcourt, Draymond Green has led the Warriors in minutes played throughout the regular season and the playoffs. Behind them, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut, and Shaun Livingston round out their core group of seven players.
Marreese Speights and Leandro Barbosa have played in all 17 Golden State playoff games, while Festus Ezeli has played in 16 of 17. These three players are the first in line for the rest of the minutes, but Coach Kerr is not reluctant to change things up if any of them are struggling on defense or offense. Ian Clark, Anderson Varejao, and Brandon Rush have all seen spot minutes, with Clark stepping up when Curry was out and Varejao serving as a wild card depending on frontcourt matchups. Varejao will likely play against Cleveland in the Finals as his defense, rebounding, and pick and roll play will be needed against the differing skill sets of Love, Thompson, and Frye. However, James Michael McAdoo and Kevon Looney are not expected to dress for the Finals.
Like last season, the Warriors have thrived on three-point shooting and ball movement. They continue to punish 'lazy' teams with lots of passing, forced turnovers, and pushing the ball when other teams are frustrated with missed shots, turnovers, and uncalled fouls. In the 2016 Playoffs, Curry and Thompson have carried the team on the offensive end, with Green, Iguodala, Barnes, Bogut, and Livingston adding sufficient secondary scoring.
Matchup: Cavs vs. Warriors
Because of their consistently good three-point shooting, the Splash Brothers are currently the deadliest scoring backcourt in the NBA. They will be much tougher to handle than the Raptors' standout backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, as they have shown the ability to make ridiculously difficult shots while also still passing the ball and trusting their teammates to score on cuts and open shots. Likewise, Green and Iguodala are legitimate scoring options. Although Barnes is inconsistent, Bogut and Livingston do a good job of filling the gaps and finding ways to score easy baskets. The Cavs' defense cannot fall asleep while defending against these seven players.
For the Cavs, they need to leverage the scoring of their Big Three while continuing to keep the other players engaged and actively moving. Hopefully, they have learned well from the shortcomings of the Oklahoma City Thunder. While Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are arguably the most dangerous scoring duo in today's NBA, they have shown a tendency to keep the ball to themselves down the stretch of tight games. In not trusting their teammates enough, missing shots, and turning the ball over too much, Durant and Westbrook helped turn a 3-1 series advantage into a 4-3 heartbreaking defeat.
In last year's Finals, the absence of Irving and Love forced the Cavs to ride the scoring of James, who averaged 35.8 points per game. Cleveland's second leading scorer was Mozgov with 14 ppg; Mozgov might not even play this time around. Now, the Cavs have a primarily healthy lineup--Dellavedova, Irving, and Love have gotten their shares of bumps and bruises in this year's playoffs, but they have managed to stay in the lineup.
The Warriors have come into their own with an all-time best 73-9 regular season record. They have a steady confidence, a strong sense of team identity, and a 'no slacking' mentality. Therefore, the Warriors are favored to win the series and the NBA Championship remains a difficult prize for Cleveland to win.
However, the Cavs now have a full cast in place this time around and a head coach who knows how to use them. Unlike David Blatt, Tyronn Lue has spent nearly half his life immersed in winning NBA cultures. Like Steve Kerr, Lue has taken the grandest NBA stage as a player and has won. He understands what works and what does not work, and he will not be outcoached in this series.